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Saturday, December 8, 2012

Stinger 609

I wasn't sure what to ask Santa for this year, but I was thumbing through a magazine on Thursday and I saw the perfect gift - the Stinger 609.

 http://www.conleyprecision.com/scharger.JPG
It is a quarter-scale, working V-8 engine with a supercharger!  You can see a video here.  The sound the engine makes is really cool!

It produces a whopping 9.5 hp at 10,000 RPM (with supercharger).  All for the low, low starting price of  $5,695.00.  Do you think Santa will bring me one?

Monday, November 19, 2012

Thirty Two Questions

Thirty Two Questions from Congressman Ron Paul's farewell address -  (watch it here)

1. Why are sick people who use medical marijuana put in prison?

2. Why does the federal government restrict the drinking of raw milk?

3. Why can't Americans manufacturer rope and other products from hemp?

4. Why are Americans not allowed to use gold and silver as legal tender as mandated by the Constitution?

5. Why is Germany concerned enough to consider repatriating their gold held by the FED for her in New York? Is it that the trust in the U.S. and dollar supremacy is beginning to wane?

6. Why do our political leaders believe it's unnecessary to thoroughly audit our own gold?

7. Why can't Americans decide which type of light bulbs they can buy?

8. Why is the TSA permitted to abuse the rights of any American traveling by air?

9. Why should there be mandatory sentences--even up to life for crimes without victims--as our drug laws require?

10. Why have we allowed the federal government to regulate commodes in our homes?

11. Why is it political suicide for anyone to criticize AIPAC ?

12. Why haven't we given up on the drug war since it's an obvious failure and violates the people's rights? Has nobody noticed that the authorities can't even keep drugs out of the prisons? How can making our entire society a prison solve the problem?

13. Why do we sacrifice so much getting needlessly involved in border disputes and civil strife around the world and ignore the root cause of the most deadly border in the world-the one between Mexico and the US?

14. Why does Congress willingly give up its prerogatives to the Executive Branch?

15. Why does changing the party in power never change policy? Could it be that the views of both parties are essentially the same?

16. Why did the big banks, the large corporations, and foreign banks and foreign central banks get bailed out in 2008 and the middle class lost their jobs and their homes?

17. Why do so many in the government and the federal officials believe that creating money out of thin air creates wealth?

18. Why do so many accept the deeply flawed principle that government bureaucrats and politicians can protect us from ourselves without totally destroying the principle of liberty?

19. Why can't people understand that war always destroys wealth and liberty?

20. Why is there so little concern for the Executive Order that gives the President authority to establish a "kill list," including American citizens, of those targeted for assassination?

21. Why is patriotism thought to be blind loyalty to the government and the politicians who run it, rather than loyalty to the principles of liberty and support for the people? Real patriotism is a willingness to challenge the government when it's wrong.

22. Why is it claimed that if people won't or can't take care of their own needs, that people in government can do it for them?

23. Why did we ever give the government a safe haven for initiating violence against the people?

24. Why do some members defend free markets, but not civil liberties?

25. Why do some members defend civil liberties but not free markets? Aren't they the same?

26. Why don't more defend both economic liberty and personal liberty?

27. Why are there not more individuals who seek to intellectually influence others to bring about positive changes than those who seek power to force others to obey their commands?

28. Why does the use of religion to support a social gospel and preemptive wars, both of which requires authoritarians to use violence, or the threat of violence, go unchallenged? Aggression and forced redistribution of wealth has nothing to do with the teachings of the world's great religions.

29. Why do we allow the government and the Federal Reserve to disseminate false information dealing with both economic and foreign policy?

 30. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it's the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority?

31. Why should anyone be surprised that Congress has no credibility, since there's such a disconnect between what politicians say and what they do?

32. Is there any explanation for all the deception, the unhappiness, the fear of the future, the loss of confidence in our leaders, the distrust, the anger and frustration? Yes there is, and there's a way to reverse these attitudes. The negative perceptions are logical and a consequence of bad policies bringing about our problems. Identification of the problems and recognizing the cause allow the proper changes to come easy.

I don't recall either presidential candidate ever bringing up any of these important questions. Awkward!

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

ALARA and LNT

ALARA and LNT are the twin nemeses of commercial nuclear power.  I have written about them before, but I want to share some additional thoughts.

ALARA is a misnomer, and a large one at that.  As low as reasonably achievable - a bureacronym that means in practice that the regulatory agency, in this case, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will use this innocuous sounding theory to add nearly unlimited cost to the nuclear industry.  Perhaps some, already in the nuclear industry welcome this, because it keeps out interlopers/competitors, but it also keeps 300 million Americans from enjoying the fruits of nuclear power.

What a thinking person needs to ask themselves is why, in a grand, universal way, should the regulatory goal be to reduce the exposure to radiation to below naturally occurring levels?  To do so is simply stupid, inefficient, and wasteful.  

Natural background radiation levels range from around 3.6 mSv/year to as much at 260 mSv/year in Ramsar, Iran.  Regulating the nuclear industry to achieve levels below this is not science.

BTW, it makes no difference to your cells whether the radiation is natural or man-made.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Lazy Saturday Afternoon

What to do on a boring/lazy Saturday afternoon:


Hook your electric guitar up to your oscilloscope and play "Dust in the Wind" while you watch the scope.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

David Stockman on CNBC

David Stockman, the former director of the Office of Management and Budget recently appeared on CNBC and had some choice words for the FED and both political parties:













"Ron Paul is the only one who is right about the Fed, and the Fed is the heart of the problem. They have destroyed the capital markets and the money markets; interest rates mean nothing; everything is trading off the Fed and Wall Street isn't even home – as it's now a bunch of computers trading word-clouds emitted by this central banker and that"

"The Fed (and the lunatics that run it) are telling the whole world untruths about the cost of money and the price of risk."

“TARP was an abomination”

“Why should the government reform when they can borrow money at essentially zero interest?”

“Morgan Stanley should have been allowed to go down”

“If you can’t fail, you shouldn’t succeed”

“We have no industrial enemies, but we spend $800 billion per year on the military industrial complex.  I would cut it by a third”

“Means test social security and Medicare”

“We are crushing savers”

“The Obama budget is total fantasy”

“The problem we have now is two free lunch parties in Washington”

“Republicans are out of their minds”

“We can’t keep simulating this economy by borrowing from the future”

“We have to eat our broccoli”

“We have all these boys and girls on wall street begging the FED for another injection of sugar.”

“Day one, hour one, job one for Romney is to fire Bernanke”

“Clean house at the Fed.  That is where the crisis came from and that is why we are still buried.”
  

Too bad we Americans vote for people who tell us Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy are real and we think that this fiscal disaster is going to hurt the other guy.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

The Fundamental Reason I am a (Commercial) Nuclear Power Advocate

I am holding in my two fingers a plastic replica of an uranium fuel pellet of the type used in light water reactors.  I got this one at the visitors' center at Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant.


 The following graphic shows how much energy such a pellet (yes, just ONE pellet) can produce compared with coal, natural gas, wood, and oil.
This is the fundamental reason I am an advocate of nuclear power - it is dense and clean and there is enough for everyone on earth - all 6 billion or 10 billion or whatever for millenia.

PS. The last statement is what scares the beejeebers out of the green movement.

PPS.  Molten Salt Reactors are even better than what this graphic shows.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Congress' Addiction

Every so often a great chart comes along to really illustrate a point:

(Reference: Wikipedia article)

As you can see, Congress consistently spends more than it takes in.  Average expenditures for the last 41 years have been 3% of GDP greater than revenues.

Don't get me wrong, I am by no means suggesting that Congress increase its revenues to cover the gap.  Instead, I offer this as evidence that Congress is fundamentally incapable of balancing its spending. Increasing its revenue will only widen the gap because of their insatiable spending appetite.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

OIE

OIE is the acronym for "Oil Is Everywhere", the new phrase I have coined to describe what Thomas Gold wrote about in "The Deep Hot Biosphere".

BTW, the subtitle of the book is "The Myth of Fossil Fuels".  The carbon in "fossil fuels", oil, coal, gas, and tar did not come from ancient dinosaurs and swamps, but has been present in the earth from its creation.

The fracking revolution in natural gas production, I think, is proof of Gold's theories and OIE.  How else do you explain drilling wells into rock, fracturing them under pressure and putting grit (proppants) into the resulting cracks to allow the gas to come to the surface.

Gold drilled some test wells into bedrock granite in Sweden years ago and extracted some oil, but his critics weren't convinced.  Too bad fracking technology wasn't developed then.  He could have extracted some serious gas and oil.  Who knows, maybe they can reopen the wells and frack them?

 

Friday, August 17, 2012

Why Nuclear Doesn't Have Political Clout

Here is a great article that explains why nuclear has so little political clout.

Bottom line:  Nuclear produces lots of electricity, not lots of jobs for politicians to pander to.

Friday, August 10, 2012

Fart Equivalent Dose

The linear no threshold (LNT) hypothesis of dose/response for ionizing radiation is ridiculous.  LNT has led the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to implement ALARA, As Low As Reasonably Achievable for the control of nuclear material and nuclear power plants.

Problem is the NRC is not reasonable and LNT is ridiculously wrong and ridiculous things should be ridiculed. ALARA and LNT have been used by the enemies of clean, abundant, safe, limitless nuclear power to paralyze the industry through the federal courts.
(Aside: When I say clean, I mean cleaner than any alternative.  Please see my previous blog about Petr Beckman's book, The Health Hazards of Not Going Nuclear.)

So, here is my proposal - the Fart Equivalent Dose (FED).  Farts are made mostly of methane, which contains the element carbon, some of which is radioactive.  Methane is also toxic, breathing it in high enough concentrations is fatal.  Thus, next time the NRC or some media outlet tells us that some radioactive tritium was discovered in some well on some nuclear plant site (that no one drinks from), we can calculate the FED and share that number through all social media - how many farts are equivalent to the miniscule amount of tritium discovered somewhere.  Tweet the number of farts, put it on FB, blog about it, spread the ridicule far and wide.  Give the radiophobes something to fear!

Oh, BTW, I need some help to figure out just how to calculate the Fart Equivalent Dose.  Can anyone out there give me a hand?

Why Don’t We Have Thorium Molten Salt Reactors Today?


A couple of weeks ago, I gave a speech on the wonders of thorium molten salt reactors to my Toastmasters club.  They were so impressed by the benefits  of the reactor, that they asked why we don't have them today.

That is a great question that deserves a great answer.  I did some research and discovered 8 reasons:

1.     Thorium did not support a bomb cycle.  Fission was discovered in 1939, just at WWII was starting.  "America's Greatest Generation" as some like to call them, chose to use the new discovery to create weapons of mass destruction.  The thorium fuel cycle was ignored because it did not lend itself to the building of bombs; uranium and plutonium did.  Therefore, those fuels were developed and later turned to peaceful uses. 

2.      Right after WWII US Navy Admiral Rickover wanted an atomic powered submarine.  For expeditious reasons he chose solid, uranium fueled reactors.  This was partly because of the precious decisions made by the Manhattan project, which developed the uranium and plutonium bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  This also led to the design (uranium and solid fuel) of the first commercial nuclear power plant at Shippingport, PA. 

3.      This further established vendors in the nuclear industry as providers of solid fuel for uranium light water reactors. 

4.      Since the Manhattan project, scientists had underestimated the world's supply of uranium.  There turned out to be a lot more than they thought. 

5.      However, this supposed shortage of uranium led the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) to develop liquid metal fast breeder reactors using uranium instead of thermal spectrum reactors using thorium.  Again thorium got snubbed. 

6.      Of course, the need for ever more plutonium for bombs during the cold War also figured greatly into the decision to develop liquid metal fast breeders. 

7.      This was one major reason the thorium molten salt project at Oak Ridge National Lab was canceled, even though the benefits of the reactor were touted by the developers.  The molten salt reactor was canceled to free up more funds for the liquid metal fast breeder reactor. 

8.      Abundant, clean, limitless fuel for mass prosperity across the world.  Does ExxonMobil really want this?  What about the rest of the oil companies?  Do you think they want to see their revenue decline by a factor of about a *million? The world consumes about 85 million barrels per day at about ~$100 per barrel that equals about $3.1 trillion per year, for oil alone.  What about coal and gas companies?  Here are the top 10 oil companies in the world.  Notice that Exxon is number 5 at nearly $500 billion per year in revenue.

1.      Saudi Aramco
2.      National Iranian Oil Company
3.      Petroleos Mexicanos
4.      Iraq National Oil Company
5.      Exxon Mobil ($490 billion revenue in 2011)
6.      BP
7.      Petrochina
8.      Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
9.      Kuwait Oil
10.  Petroleos de Venezuela

*I figured that oil company revenue would decline by a factor equal to the density factor between chemical reactions and nuclear reactions; about a million.  Nuclear is a million times more concentrated than chemical fuel (coal, gas, and oil).  So, a million times less fuel is needed.

Now you see why the coal, gas, and oil companies are always sponsoring negative reporting about nuclear power - raw, self interest masquerading as "green" concern for the planet against evil radiation.

The Meaningless Catastrophe of WWI

I consider myself a passable author, but I probably wouldn't write if there were others who wrote about the things I think are important. 
Luckily, there is a great author who wrote a fantastic, short essay on WWI and how it changed the world for the worse.

Joseph R. Stromberg is the author and the essay is called "The Meaningless Catastrophe of WWI."  You can access the essay here.

Perhaps by reading and understanding this essay, we can avoid future, worldwide bloodbaths.  Call me an optimist.

Mass Prosperity or Mass Destruction

Yesterday was the 67th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki by the United States during WWII, August 9th, 1945.  The bomb was named "Fat Man" and used plutonium 239 produced in reactors at the Hanford site, in Washington State.
Though plutonium 239 is an element, with a half life of 24,000 years, none of it still exists from the creation of the universe.  Hence, it had to be made from uranium 238 in a nuclear reactor.  The uranium 238 absorbs a neutron and becomes plutonium 239.

Fat Man killed 80,000 people and destroyed virtually the entire city of Nagasaki.

Contrast that with the landing of the Curiosity Rover on the surface of Mars on Monday. 
Curiosity is the size of a Hummer and weighs 2,000 pounds and guess what is it powered by? Plutonium!, but not the fissionable kind, a different isotope, plutonium 238.

This isotope is also made in a nuclear reactor, but the beauty of this element is that it radioactively decays so quickly, that it releases enough heat to glow red hot.  This heat is harnessed in thermoelectric generators to provide electric power for Curiosity.  These generators provide 125 watts of electricity, day or night for years.  However, after about 14 years the electricity produced will decline to about 100 watts due to the decay of the plutonium.  I would like some batteries like that!

Thus, plutonium can be used for weapons of mass destruction, or it can be used for scientific exploration or for producing abundant, clean and limitless power for humankind.

The choice is ours, mass destruction or mass prosperity.  Though the decision was previously made by "America's Greatest Generation" in favor mass destruction, we can and should make our own decision, but it should be informed.  This is the reason that I blog, to show the world that abundant, clean, limitless power is available through the fissioning of thorium, plutonium, and uranium in molten salt reactors.



Saturday, August 4, 2012

Royce Johnson and the Gold Standard

Mr. Royce Johnson was my high school civics teacher, or rather my US history teacher or whatever it was called back then.



I don't remember much about the class, but I do remember something he said about gold.  "There isn't enough of it in the world to be used as money any more," or something to that effect.

Isn't that interesting?  Years later, while trying to make some sense of the economics stupidities one hears constantly in the lay press and around campuses and by water coolers, I learned two things (from the writings of Murray Rothbard, Ludwig Von Mises, Lew Rockwell, and Gary North.)

1.  There is no social benefit to an increase in the money supply.

2.  The total amount of money in the money supply doesn't matter.

Let me explain both of these.  People and society as a whole are not benefited by an increase in the total amount of money in circulation, or the money supply.  An increase in the money supply causes (or is really) inflation.  This is not a benefit to society.

However, that is not to say that someone is not benefited by an increase in the money supply (at someone else's expense).  Counterfeiters are directly benefited by an increase in the money supply.  They just make a few, crisp bills and they get to spend it until they get caught by the official counterfeiters.  (More on them later).

The Federal Reserve System of the US and indeed, every central bank on the planet are the official counterfeiters of the world.  They create money out of thin air and generally lend it to their respective governments, which then spend it on their favorite people and projects.  This, of course, benefits the few at the expense of the many, which is why increases in the money supply do not benefit society.

Next, the point that my high school teacher did not understand is that the total relatively small amount of gold in the world is not an impediment in its functioning as money.

Consider this; what does it matter if your next car costs one, ten, one hundred, one thousand, one million, or one billion units of currency or coins of gold.  What matters is the ratio between the work you do that brings in the gold and how many of those coins you need to buy the car.  

In fact, the relatively small amount of gold in the world makes it ideal as money (as well as its other qualities), because it cannot be easily manipulated by the central banks of the world.  This is also the reason that the central bankers of the world universally hate gold; it cannot be easily counterfeited or manipulated.  That really puts the crimp on their monetary and fiscal policy and that's why anyone who really cares about freedom should love gold.

Gold has been chosen as money by nearly every civilization in history.  Take some time to learn about it here.

So, sorry Mr. Johnson, you'll have to repeat the 11th grade.

Save More, Live Better

Save More, Live Better
 
If you can't correctly identify this marketing slogan with its corporation, you have probably been living in a cave for the last 30 years.  This, of course, is the Walmart slogan.

Walmart is a highly successful retailing corporation with revenues of $447 billion in 2011.  Compare that to Greece with a GDP of just $303 billion for 2011.

(Aside:  If Walmart stopped serving its customers and ran into financial difficulty, would the FED and the European Central Bank bail it out because it is too big to fail?  I think the answer is no or should be no.  Yet, why does the ECB continue to prop up the ever failing Greek government which spends way more than it takes in and can no longer borrow money at favorable interest rates on the market because lenders have not confidence that they will ever get their money back?)

Walmart is ever the target of leftists and hollywood types for being a more efficient retailer than just about anyone else. That's not the language they use, but that's really what they don't like.  I suppose they want the Walmart slogan to be, "Spend More, Live with Less" or, "Spend More, Get by with Less."

This also seems to be the unspoken slogan of alternative energy types, like Amory Lovins, whose occupation for the last 3 decades has been to persuade and coerce us into using less energy so we can save the planet, prevent global warming, save baby seals and polar bears and save ice sheets from becoming icebergs.

So, next time you hear someone talking about sustainable this or that or some specious plea for saving the planet (from what???), translate their words into the correct slogan, "Spend More, Live with Less."
 

Batman and Ironman

My readers are probably familiar with the popular American movies, "The Dark Knight Rises" and "Ironman".  Both of these movies have novel energy sources woven into their plots.

In "Ironman", Tony Stark and his flying suit are powered by a glowing ring device that produces vast amounts of energy.  

In the latest Batman movie, Bruce Wayne has a fusion reactor underneath the Hudson river that is only awaiting the final touches of a genius Russian nuclear physicist to make it work and produce limitless, clean power.  Of course, the device falls into the hands of the arch villain, who immediately weaponizes it.

How does movie land compare to reality?  Check this out:  A piece of thorium (an element, present since the creation of the universe) the size of this rock can provide all your energy needs for your entire life time.


 That's right, energy for your entire lifetime; transportation, domestic heating and cooling, domestic hot water, lighting and electricity.  Compare that with the truckloads of coal, oil and gas you would need for a lifetime. 

Thorium is a fairly abundant element, as common as lead and can be burned a a molten salt reactor.  These types of reactors offer substantial advantages over conventional light water reactors and yes, Virginia, even light water reactors have advantages over fossil fuels.

You can learn more about thorium molten salt reactors here.
 

Nigeria Tanker Truck Explosion

On July 12, 2012, over 120 people were killed in a horrific tanker truck accident in Nigeria.  Many of the victims were trying to collect gasoline from the wrecked tanker when it caught fire and exploded.  What a terrible loss of life! 

The victims were apparently trying to scoop up spilling fuel for their motorcycle taxis when the wrecked tanker truck exploded.  That is how desperate they are for energy.  

Why do I mention this? Not because I am insensitive to their plight, but because the number of dead exceeds the number killed in all commercial nuclear accidents since the first commercial nuclear power plant at Shippingport, Pennsylvania first went online and started producing electricity.  This includes the horrible nuclear accident at Chernobyl.  Below is a summary of the fatalities due to commercial nuclear power:

Fukushima Daiichi fatalities = 0 

How come we don't hear the hue and cry to abandon fossil fuel?  Yet that is what constantly assaults us regarding nuclear power. We must abandon nuclear power because of Fukushima, Chernobyl and Three Mile Island.  No, we must learn from Fukushima and build the molten salt reactors that were invented in the 1960s and get them on-line sooner!

(Aside:  I'm sure that you have all heard incredible numbers of people that supposedly died from the Chernobyl accident.  Those are theoretical deaths - deaths that supposedly occurred because of the radiation release assuming that the linear no threshold theory is correct.  It isn't correct.  For a good technical discussion on the incorrectness of the linear no threshold theory, click here.)

Sunday, June 24, 2012

1837

Let's pretend that we are on Jeopardy.  The year 1837 is the answer to what question?

"Why, Alex, What is the only year since the Constitution was adopted in which the Federal Government did not have a debt or run a deficit?"

 "So Alex, in the 223 years since the Constitution took effect, there has been only one year in which the Federal Government lived within its means?"  That's correct.

Now back to the real world. 

Doesn't that really put the whole balanced budget amendment and all other jawboning about federal deficits and debt into perspective?

As analogy, let's say that in 1789 an orphanage is opened in New York City, whose stated objective is to find homes for orphans and to place them for adoption.  Two hundred and twenty three years later, the orphanage is audited, where it is discovered that only 1 orphan was ever placed for adoption, and that was in 1837.  Would anyone believe the stated objective of the orphanage?

Think about that as we descend into the presidential election cycle!  Maybe it is time to pull out the Anti-Federalist papers and read them!

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Aerovee Service Bulletin

While doing the annual inspection on my Sonex aircraft, we discovered a service bulletin on the Aerovee engine.  The bulletin tells owners to remove the alternator plate on the rear of the engine and replace the 4 socket head cap screws that retain the alternator stator with longer screws that have a nylon patch on them.

The bulletin also states that if the longer socket head cap screws bottom out in the blind hole before fully clamping the stator, the hole must be drilled through and tapped.

Well, guess what, the screws bottomed out.  The whole operation was not hard, but taking the plate off the rear of the engine required taking a lot of things apart.  And I had to buy 25 screws on-line, when I only needed 4.

 This is the rear of the alternator adapter plate showing the 4 holes (with no red anodizing) that were drilled and tapped through to allow the new, longer screws to be installed from the other side.

 One of the 4 holes with the socket head cap screw.
 This is the new, longer screw with the nylon patch to prevent the screw from backing out.


Stator installed with the new, longer screws.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Molten Salt Thorium Reactors

Ralph Moir and Edward Teller (yes, that Edward Teller) wrote an excellent paper on molten salt reactor technology.  You can access it here.  Read, enjoy, and share with a friend.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Cyclone of Fire 2

Recently, a colleague and I took a design of experiments class at work.  The following is the report of the project we did for the class.

Introduction

A fire whirl (also known as a fire devil or fire tornado) occurs when a whirlwind (also known as a dust devil) develops in the presence of a fire.  In such instances, the fire acquires a vertical vorticity and forms a whirl, or tornado-like vertically oriented column of fire. (1)  Fire whirls can be created in a laboratory setting using a turntable, a cylindrical screen, and a burner.  The cylindrical screen on the spinning turn table creates a vortex, and the burner provides the fire.  Compare pictures of a natural and laboratory fire whirl, below.

Figure 1: Natural Fire Whirl (1)


Figure 2:  Laboratory fire whirl

Objective
The objective of this experiment was to determine the factors that most influence fire whirl height.  The following two level factors were investigated: screen diameter (small/7” and large/10”); screen height (short/18” and tall/36”); screen material (aluminum and fiberglass); turn table speed (slow and fast); and burner lighter fluid brand (Kent’s/Western Family and Lowe’s/Kingsford).  These factors were investigated using a 5 factor / 1 block / 16 run Box, Hunter & Hunter designed experiment.  The test runs are summarized in Table 1, below.

Table 1:  Test runs for DOE
Set Up

The set up of this experiment consisted of assembling and constructing various items.  Three of the five factors were related to the cylindrical screens.  Each factor had two levels.  Thus, eight cylindrical screens of various diameters, heights, and materials were constructed and are shown in Figure 3, below.  Another factor was burner lighter fluid brand.  Two brands were investigated, so two burners were used.  Each burner consisted of lighter fluid soaked rolled corrugated cardboard positioned in a tin can.  One of the burners, two brands of lighter fluid, and burner snuffer are shown in Figure 4, below.  The complete test fixture, consisting of a wooden turntable with brackets securing a cylindrical screen and burner is show in Figure 5, below.  Flame height measurement was facilitated via a measuring tape positioned adjacent to the turntable, as show in Figure 6, below.

 
Figure 3:  Fiberglass (left) and aluminum (right) cylindrical screens
 of two heights and two diameters used in DOE

Figure 4:  Burner, two lighter fluids, and snuffer

Figure 5:  Turntable with cylindrical screen and burner installed
Figure 6:  Measuring tape installed next to cylindrical screen
Procedure

The test procedure was as follows:
1.                  Install the specified cylindrical screen on the turntable brackets
2.                  Charge the burner with the specified lighter fluid*
3.                  Install the burner in the turntable brackets
4.                  Light the burner
5.                  Spin the turntable at either fast or slow rates**
6.                  Measure the peak flame height three times by visual inspection***
7.                  Stop the turn table and snuff the burner

*It is noted that the burners were not recharged or charged equally for every test run.  The burners were initially charged with their respective lighter fluids, and then recharged only occasionally, between runs.  The burners were never exhausted, and the volume of fluid not controlled.

**The turntable was spun at either a fast or slow rate, as determined qualitatively by the operator.  One operator performed all the tests to reduce variation. 

***Flame height varied during burn time, even after the turntable spin rate seemed to achieve a steady state.  Peak flame height was record by visual inspection three times during the course of a test run.  Each measurement of a given test run was separated by a few seconds.

The fully assembled test fixed with lit burner on the stationary turntable is shown in Figure 7, below.  The same assembly with lit burner, but on the spinning turntable is shown in Figure 8, below.  Note the difference in flame shape and height.


Figure 7:  Stationary turntable with burning and cylindrical screen
Figure 8:  Spinning turntable with burning and cylindrical screen

Results

The results of the experiment are shown in Table 2, below.  Columns 6 through 8, labeled “Run1,” “Run2,” and “Run3,”correspond to the three height measurements (in inches) taken for a given test case.  The median of the three “runs” is shown in column 9.

Table 2:  DOE Results

Statistical Analysis

A statistical analysis of the data was performed to determine the significance of the various factors.  Since each test case was only run once (subgroup size of one), A Priori Pooling is used to separate signals from noise.  Using this method, some of the contrasts are combined in order to obtain a Mean Square Error (Within) term. (2)  The signs of each confounding group are shown in Table 3, below.  Because the subgroup size equals one, no interactions were used.

Table 3:  Correlation matrix
The estimated contrast effects are shown in Table 4, below.  As can be seen, all of the p values are much larger than 0.05, suggesting none of the effects are significant.

Table 4:  Effect estimates

An ANOVA table is presented in Table 5, below.  This table presents much of the same information as the previous table.  As with the previous table, the p values for the various factors are listed.  All p values are much larger than the threshold 0.05 value, indicating none of the factors are significant.

Table 5:  ANOVA table
A normal probability plot of the estimated contrast effects is shown in Figure 9, below.  A normal probability plot is used to make a relative comparison.  Instead of plotting the sum of squares values, a normal probability plot plots the estimated contrast effects.  These effects are computed for every contrast, arranged in rank order, and plotted versus the appropriate percentages on a normal probability chart.  Normal probability plots have the property that a random sample drawn from a normal distribution will yield a straight line, more or less. (2)  Thus, the fact that the data point for this experiment fall more or less in a straight line suggests none of the effects are significant.

Figure 9:  Normal probability plot of effects


A scree plot for this experiment is shown in Figure 10, below.  A scree plot plots the sum of squares for each contrast in descending order of magnitude, and connects these points to form the profile of a cliff.  (In the chart, below, the cliff is rotated 90°.)  A significant effect would be much taller than the noise.  In this case, none of the factors stand out significantly, and all fall below the p=0.05 criterion for significance.
Figure 10:  Scree plot of the effects
Discussion

This statistical analysis of the experimental data suggests that none of the factors have a significant effect on flame height.  While cylindrical screen height and turntable rotation speed came closest to being significant factors, both failed to meet the p=0.05 criterion.  Thus, one could conclude that flame height is a function of some other factor, or that the experiment was flawed.  Possible flaws in the experiment include flame height measurement technique, burner lighter fluid charging, turn table speed, and subgroup size.  These items are discussed below.

Flame Height Measurement
Flame height, the measured response of the system, was determined by visual inspection.  Inasmuch as the flame height fluctuated widely and rapidly during burn time, employing a videographic system to capture and assess peak flame height would improve the fidelity of the measurement.  Also, decreasing the ambient light during the test period may improve the measurements.

Burner Lighter Fluid Charging
In retrospect, it is hypothesized that the amount of available lighter fluid in the burner is a significant factor in flame height.  The significance of all other factors could be masked or confounded due to this single uncontrolled factor.  Weighing each burner before each test run to verify the initial mass / amount of available fuel is the same every time, would have allowed for a true study of the significance of lighter fluid, as well as improved the fidelity of the other data. 

Turntable Speed
The turntable was manually spun at either “fast” or “slow” rates, per the test matrix, with rates gauged qualitatively by the operator.  While there was an observable difference between the two spin rates, employing a mechanical system to spin the turntable in a repeatable and steady manner may increase the ability to determine the significance of this factor.

Increasing Subgroup Size
A subgroup size of one was used for this experiment to minimize the total number of runs.  However, because there was only one observation per test, 2- and 3-way interactions were not assessed.  Adding additional observations would allow for the affects of interactions to be estimated.

Addressing these or other flaws in the experiment could result in an improved understanding of the factors that impact flame height.  Additionally, other factors could be included in the experiment.  The computational work of Battaglia et al. (3) and others could be queried for additional insights on key factors.  While our experiments failed to reveal the key factors, others have, experimentally, computationally, or otherwise, determined design parameters such that fire whirls are available commercially, as discussed in the following section. 

Commercial Fire Whirls

Fire whirls are marketed commercially as patio heaters and displays.  Some of the commercially available fire whirls are driven by electric exhaust fans while others are naturally aspirated.  Most produce the fire whirl within tubes of borosilicate glass.  See the images, below for examples of the commercially available fire whirls.
 Figure 11: Lava Heat fire whirl (4)


Figure 12: Vortex Fires fire whirl (5)

Works Cited
1. Fire whirl. Wikipedia. [Online] April 2, 2012. [Cited: April 10, 2012.] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_whirl.
2. Wheeler, Donald J. Understanding Industrial Experimentation. Knoxville : SPC Press, Inc., 1990. ISBN 0-945320-09-4.
3. Fire Whirl Simulations. Battaglia, Francine, et al. Gaithersburg : NIST United States Department of Commerce Technology Administration, 1998. http://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/fire98/art079.html. NISTIR 6242.
4. Starfire Direct. Lava Heat Patio Heater. Starfire Direct. [Online] 2012. [Cited: April 10, 2012.] http://www.starfiredirect.com/lava-heat-patio-heater-p-965.html.
5. Moderustic Inc. Home. Moderustic Vortex Fires. [Online] 2011. [Cited: April 10, 2012.] http://www.vortexfires.com/Home.html.